Recently, there has been flurry of articles in the newsmedia about a pronounced increase in home sales, which has also led to a stock market rally in the runup to the Thanksgiving Holiday. I’d like to take this opportunity to put a bit of local perspective on this latest sales trend:
75% of the homes sold between August through October in Miami-Dade County were priced under $300,000 and 23% of these sales were for homes listed under $100,000.
Price trends at the lower end of the market have been positive, however moving into the higher price ranges, those are areas that we are still seeing weakness. Typically, when the supply of homes for sale stands at a year or more, prices tend to fall. With a six- to nine-month supply, prices remain flat. When the supply drops below six months, sales activity begins to spur price appreciation, as it has for recent home sold and priced under $100,000
Below is sampling of the supply of houses listed for sale in Miami-Dade in October, according to the MLS:
• Under $100,000: four-month supply
• Under $300,000: eight-month supply
• $300,000 to $1 million: 21-month supply
• Over $1 million: four-year supply
Miami Beach’s luxury housing market falls into the upper end category, however, the supply is much more restricted due to the natural barrier (island community) limiting further supply. Also, virtually no new construction is currently taking place, so we’re experiencing a decline in inventory levels for Miami Beach’s 33139 and 33140 zip codes:
$300,000 to $500,000: less than six month supply
$500,000 to $1 million: 14 month supply
$1 million to $2 million: 18 month supply
Over $2 million: 23 month supply
The conclusion from the above referenced data – there is no room in the Miami Beach housing market for overpriced listings. The strongest demand is for turnkey (completely remodeled) homes, where the new owners do not have to make an additional investment into the property.
* Data Sources: MLS & Miami-Dade Public Records
Recently, there has been flurry of articles in the newsmedia about a pronounced increase in home sales, which has also led to a stock market rally in the runup to the Thanksgiving Holiday. I’d like to take this opportunity to put a bit of local perspective on this latest sales trend:
75% of the homes sold between August through October in Miami-Dade County were priced under $300,000 and 23% of these sales were for homes listed under $100,000.
Price trends at the lower end of the market have been positive, however moving into the higher price ranges, those are areas that we are still seeing weakness. Typically, when the supply of homes for sale stands at a year or more, prices tend to fall. With a six- to nine-month supply, prices remain flat. When the supply drops below six months, sales activity begins to spur price appreciation, as it has for recent home sold and priced under $100,000.
Below is sampling of the supply of houses listed for sale in Miami-Dade in October, according to the MLS:
Under $100,000: four-month supply
Under $300,000: eight-month supply
$300,000 to $1 million: 21-month supply
Over $1 million: four-year supply
Miami Beach’s luxury housing market falls into the upper end category, however, the supply is much more restricted due to the natural barrier (island community) limiting further supply. Also, virtually no new construction is currently taking place, so we’re experiencing a decline in inventory levels for Miami Beach’s 33139 and 33140 zip codes:
$300,000 to $500,000: less than six month supply
$500,000 to $1 million: 14 month supply
$1 million to $2 million: 18 month supply
Over $2 million: 23 month supply
The conclusion from the above referenced data – there is no room in the Miami Beach housing market for overpriced listings. The strongest demand is for turnkey (completely remodeled) homes, where the new owners do not have to make an additional investment into the property.
As a member of Miami’s elite Real Estate Professional’s Association- The Master Broker’s Forum, I had the privilege of attending a dinner on the future site of Old Spanish Village in Coral Gables.
After assembling approximately 20 parcels of residential and commercial office buildings, visionary builder Ralph Sanchez is rolling out this mixed use project in the heart of Coral Gables. Featuring new 400 upscale condos and townhouse, which will be completed in the second half of 2009. Old Spanish Village will comprise a seven acre complex of homes, offices and shops in the Ponce Circle area. The 42 three story townhomes will come with elevators, roof top terraces and two car garages. All residential units will be between 3,500 – 4,500 sqft., with exclusive Founders prices starting at just over $1 million ($370/S.F.).
When completed, Old Spanish Village will comprise an office tower, mid-rise condominiums, and town-home villas. All designed to evoke a classic Spanish architectural style. This mixed use project was inspired by the vision of Coral Gables founder George Merrick and is the modern realization of one of several themed enclaves in the city, such as the French, Chinese and Dutch villages that Mr. Merrick conceived and created in the 1920’s.
Residential Towers:
One Ponce Circle will be a 16-story mixed use building with 59 condos ranging from 2,500 – 8,5000 sq.ft., with private elevators that open directly into apartments.
Casa Palermo is a separate six story residential tower with 96 residences ranging from 800-1,500sqft., and comprising 1 & 2 bedroom units.
3001 Ponce De Leon Blvd – 9 stories of 172 (1,2 and 3 bedroom) condominiums.
This very unique and highly desirable project will resemble a Spanish inspired architectural village concept. The developers had in mind a Spanish Town and a Spanish Bazaar Village concept.
The Developer has hired Miami historian Arva Parks and plans were devised for Old Spanish Village in the spirit of Merrick’s Spanish-themed villages (planned many years ago but never realized).
The State of Florida is still in desperate need of property tax reform & reduction. The measure that was approved last year has helped to provide some limited tax reductions, but has turned out to be a complicated & very limited property tax reduction effort. There is a new initiative to significantly reduce property taxes next year, called AMENDMENT FIVE, which would eliminate from 25-40% of today’s current property taxes, creating a SIGNIFICANT reduction in the total cost of home and/or business ownership. To replace the lost revenue, Florida sales tax would increase by about 1%. 5 Reasons To Vote YES for Amendment 5
Amendment 5 is a long overdue tax cut for all property owners: families, businesses, second homeowners and investors. Property tax levies have doubled over the past six years – from $15 billion in 2000 to $30 billion in 2006. With higher fuel prices and food costs, and stagnant incomes, it’s no wonder Florida families are struggling to make ends meet. If you’re living the American Dream in Florida, you stand to save 25% to 40% on your property taxes in 2010.
Amendment 5 will jump start Florida’s economy. Economists estimate that Amendment 5 will save property owners more than $10 billion in taxes. This will increase the liquidity and net spendable income of millions of property owners.
Amendment 5 will shift the burden of funding education from property owners to all who access the public school system. Currently, property owners pay a disproportionate share, compared to renters, for our schools. And property owners whose children attend private school pay tuition and public school taxes. By funding schools through sales taxes and other measures, Amendment 5 creates a more equitable tax system.
Amendment 5 offers much-needed tax relief for millions of property owners and continues the momentum created by Amendment 1 – approved by voters in January 2008 – toward reforming Florida’s archaic property tax system. Amendment 5 also pressures legislators to get serious about tapping stable and lucrative revenue sources for schools such as Internet sales (a $3 billion cash cow and an increase in state sales tax — much of it paid by non residents!).
Amendment 5 will provide much-needed tax relief to Florida’s seniors, many of whom fear losing their homes because of an inability to pay higher property taxes on a fixed income. On November 4, you have an unprecedented opportunity to vote YES for the biggest property tax cut in Florida history. Vote YES on Amendment 5.
The Five Most Common Myths about reducing Property Taxes Further:
Myth #1
Opponents say Amendment 5 will take valuable funding away from schools.
False! Amendment 5 requires the Legislature to provide required funding for schools. Instead of the funds coming from property owners in the form of taxes, it could come from sales taxes, reduced spending or any other source determined by lawmakers.
Myth #2
Opponents say Amendment 5 will raise the state sales tax and disproportionately affect the poor and needy.
False on two counts! First, Amendment 5 does not require the Legislature to increase the state sales tax. Second, necessary goods and services will remain exempt from a higher sales tax. These include unprepared food, rent, heating fuel, medicine, electricity and health care services.
Myth #3
Opponents say Amendment 5 equals a sales tax on services.
False! Amendment 5 does not dictate to lawmakers how to make up the revenue to fund our schools — including any new tax on services. It points out obvious options, such as a reduction in spending, and encourages lawmakers to come up with other revenue sources, such as collecting sales tax on items currently taxed in retail stores but not when purchased on the Internet.
Everyone is well aware of Miami’s downtown building oversupply, but just how bad is it? In the last six years, 22,737 units were built or are now under construction in Miami’s urban core — more than double the number built in the nearly 40 previous years, it’s a large figure, but still less than many predicted. Perhaps no section of Florida has seen more building in recent years than downtown Miami’s urban core.
However, with the housing market turning in 2006, the credit crunch of 2007, and inexperienced developers having to cope with rising construction costs & mismanagement, many proposed projects never went beyond the planning stages. With few new projects starting in the past two years, the real scope and size of Miami’s downtown condo craze is starting to come into focus. Although the downtown market still has a vast surplus of condos- it is not 50,000 or 80,000 new units, it’s estimated that 22,000 new units. The bad news is that it is still 22,000 new units.
I recently came across an interview with Jim Cramer (from Mad Money on CNBC), which I believe accurately predicts future real estate trends for the Southeast Florida housing market. For anyone considering buying Miami Beach, South Beach, or even downtown Miami waterfront properties, NOW is the time to be making offers on well priced properties.
Cramer’s Key Points:
Inventory is drying up & being steadily being absorbed
Housing starts have been down for over two years
New construction projects stopped two years ago
Florida is generally one year ahead of market trends
Interest Rate cuts have had a positive effect in absorbing excess inventory (at much reduced prices)
Recently, there has been flurry of articles in the newsmedia about a pronounced increase in home sales, which has also led to a stock market rally in the runup to the Thanksgiving Holiday. I’d like to take this opportunity to put a bit of local perspective on this latest sales trend:
